I have some good encouraging for Democrats. RealClearPolitics has 249 solid votes for Obama. This means that Obama is winning these states by a margin of 7%. There are some states like New Mexico that are at 8% but are considered “leaning” because the polls have been more volatile.
Here’s why that’s such good news. If Obama still has 249 votes on the morning of the election, it won’t be about getting to 270, it will be about getting to 21. With 37 votes officially leaning Obama, plus another 97 toss-up votes (most of which lean Obama), it won’t take more than a couple of states to give Obama the 21 votes he needs.
So, although we may see Obama’s numbers decline in the popular vote (as we see in every election), the popular vote percentage is very deceptive.