27 Days

With 27 days until the election, there are only four things that would keep Barack Obama from winning this election:

1) Obama could have a major gaffe. This is a unlikely, but clearly not impossible. His performance at the debates last night was staid and calm, and he just doesn’t seem like the guy who shoots from the hip. By contrast, McCain’s interpretation of “maverick” seems increasingly unsteady and decreasingly wise. 

2) A major and unexpected world event could refocus our attention away from domestic issues and squarely on the issue of terrorism or military affairs. It would have to be an awfully big event. Again, this is unlikely, but clearly not impossible. With a tip of the hat to the conspiracy theorists among you, I’m not even sure that government manipulation of the terror alert or a wag-the-dog scenario would be enough to distract us from the economy.

3) Perhaps there is something that McCain knows that the rest of us don’t that will be revealed in the days preceding the election. Compared to the other two, this might be the most likely – but the likelihood is low. McCain is desperate for ammunition – and if he’s down to his last political grenade, it would be more useful now than in four weeks.

4) The “Bubba Vote” is much, much larger than anticipated. The theory goes like this: a well meaning middle-age, middle-class white person is leaning mildly toward Obama prior to the election. He even tells a telephone pollster and a couple of friends that he’ll probably vote for Obama. Come election day, he pauses for just a couple of seconds and asks himself if he can *really* vote for a black man for President. Thinking that it’s better to err on the side of caution, he switches his vote at the last minute. Could this happen? Of course, and it will happen. But it is impossible to measure how frequently it will happen, so it is an unknowable variable. HOWEVER, let’s remember that there are three things that counterbalance the Bubba vote. First, the number of first time voters that have been signed up by the Obama campaign is brilliantly staggering. Even if only 10% of those new voters vote, it cancels out the Bubba vote. Second, Obama’s ground campaign is so thorough that even if he loses the popular vote, the distribution of those votes will still produce electoral magic. Third, I think that for every husband who openly supports McCain, there is a housewife who secretly supports Obama. It’s not a matter of race or gender, it’s a matter of message: Obama’s message of change resonates with women.

The electoral numbers are staggering. Every major polling organization has Obama ahead by at least 100 electoral votes. The remaining handful of states that haven’t clearly broken left or right in the polls are all leaning left – save Indiana.

According to RCP, McCain has to win 102 of the 111 toss-up electoral votes in order to win the election. As it stands, 100 of those toss-up votes are currently leaning Obama.

It’s game over unless something dramatic happens.

8 responses to “27 Days

  1. goodtimepolitics

    You have Obama winning today and he has not! Keep going by the polls and he will lose for sure! I’m sure that Sarah Palin will get the word out to the people about obama and his terrorist friends and his socialist plans for this country!

  2. Obama is up and I am optimistic, but we can’t sit back and become complacent that he has it in the bag. We have to keep fighting for the future…for hope…and for REAL change. I feel very strongly about this because the next president is going to set the stage for the future my son will be living in long after I am gone. It is so important. Obama-Biden ’08!

  3. Your a fool and so are the rest of you libs (not you backpacktwang, your keeping it real) saying that this election is over. Or even close to over.

    It is not “game over unless something dramatic happens”. Its never game over, ever. This election is too close to call.

    What the debate told us was one thing, and it wasn’t that McCain can’t debate or attack (attack correctly that is), we already knew that. This debate showed us Obama can’t close the deal.

    And that depresses you. I know it does. I know it depresses all of you Democrats, this was “your year!” this was the “filibuster proof, super majority congress!” but McCain STILL is in on this race.

  4. “goodtimepolitics” must have been watching FOXNEWS again. I caught some of this morning’s fact wrenching over when and where Obama knew about Ayers. Every major news entity except FOXNEWS has discounted this as a no-substance story. Why is FOXNEWS not focusing on McCain’s new plan to have the taxpayers buy up bad mortgages? Will this include flippers and other investors? What is the cost to the taxpayers? Will this be different from what Paulson already plans? Will the taxpayers absorb all the bank, legal and late fees associated with these bad mortgages? Instead FOXNEWS wants to know when Obama became aware what Ayers did some 40 years ago.

  5. Goodtimepolitics…your “gonna” place the hope of the free world in Mooselini???? Can’t McCain carry your load of crap by himself…or is he already overburdened with his own baggage????

  6. J Stat: I doubt that would be an October surprise. It is just too boring.

  7. I was just messing around.

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