NOTE: this is a post from Sept. of 2008 – for the most recent election numbers, go to my home page.
As we get ready for the first Vice-Presidential candidate debate, I figured it would be a good time to look at some updated polling data.
But first, a quick conspiracy theory:
Thursday night is the most watched night of television, and the most watched slot is at 8:00 (central). This also happens to be the day and time chosen for the upcoming VP debates. My theory – and I actually don’t think it is too far fetched – is that McCain suspended his campaign thinking that such a dramatic move would surely prompt Obama and/or the bipartisan debate commission to reschedule last Friday’s debates to this Thursday night (a reschedule date requested by McCain). Moving the first debate to Thursday at 8:00pm would have maximized the public’s exposure to McCain’s strengths (foreign policy) and minimized their exposure to his weaknesses (all of the other issues, plus Palin). Sadly for McCain, it was one of the least watched presidential debates in history. Not surprising for a Friday night. As for Palin (who is drawing crowds of 60,000+ down in Florida), this Thursday night will either catapult her to the top or sink her like a stone. If her interviews with Gibson and Curric are any indication, she’s in a world of hurt.
Ok, back to the polling data.
As of Sunday evening at 10:00pm . . .
- Obama is ahead in an average of the national polls by 4.8%.
- Favorability ratings put Obama ahead 3.1%.
- If you don’t count toss-up states (NV, MN, WI, MO, IN, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, FL), Obama would win the electoral vote count by 65 votes.
- If you count toss-up states, Obama would win the electoral vote by 64 votes (with MN, WI, PA, NC, VA, and NC voting for Obama and NV, MO, IN, OH, and FL for McCain).
- Of the 8 national polls averaged to determine these numbers, McCain is only leading in one of the eight polls – and only by 2%. Obama is leading the remaining seven polls by at least 5 points (and as many as 8 points, according to Gallup).
- The last five state transitions all favor Obama. OR moves LO to SO, MO moves LM to TU, MI moves TU to LO, WV moves SM to LM, and NC moves LM to TU (S=solid, L=leaning, TU=toss-up, O=Obama, M=McCain).
Here is what the toss-up states are thinking, as of right now:
- PA (21ev) – 4.4% for Obama
- MI (17ev) – 6.6% for Obama
- WI (10ev) – 3.8% for Obama
- NH (4ev) – 1.3% for Obama
- VA (13ev) – 1.8% for Obama
- CO (9ev) – 5.4% for Obama
- NM(5ev) – 6.0% for Obama
- MN (10ev) – 2.8% for Obama
- NC (15ev) – 0.3% for Obama
- OH (20ev) – 1.2% for McCain
- NV (5ev) – 1.7% for McCain
- IN (11ev) – 2.3% for McCain
- FL (27ev) – 1.6% for McCain
- MO (11ev) – 3.2% for McCain
There are still many days left to go in this election, so it is far too early to celebrate. On the other hand, if the current trend maintains or continues in the direction it is currently heading, Obama will win this election.