If the election were held today, Barack Obama would win the popular vote and the electoral vote. Specifically, Barack Obama leads John McCain by 2.3% in the popular vote, according to the conservative polling site realclearpolitics.com.
Here are some interesting facts from the popular vote polling data:
- Barack Obama has led the popular vote since September 18th, and had been losing to John McCain for 11 straight days since September 7th – three days after the end of the RNC.
- Prior to September 7th, the last time that John McCain was ahead of Barack Obama was on April 14th.
- John McCain’s biggest lead in the campaign was 2.9% on September 9th.
- Barack Obama’s biggest lead in the campaign was 7.5% on June 24th.
- Since September of 2007, there have been 12 times in which one candidate surpassed another in the polls.
- In the past 365 days, Barack Obama has been in the lead 326 days and John McCain has been in the lead 39 days.
- Barack Obama’s three longest sustained periods of winning are 4 months, 21 days; 3 months, 20 days; and 40 days. John McCain’s three longest sustained periods of winning are 9 days, 10 days, and 11 days.
Here are some interesting facts about the state-by-state electoral polling data:
- Barack Obama and John McCain both have exactly 157 “solid” votes from states that will almost certainly cast their electoral votes in a predictable way.
- Barack Obama has led the “no toss-up” electoral count by 8 votes since August 24th, 2008.
- Barack Obama has never lost the “no toss-up” electoral count, except for a four day period from August 19th – 23rd, 2008.
- John McCain currently leads the electoral count by 14 votes when “toss-up” states are not considered. He has held this lead since September 7th, the same day that his popular vote percentage overtook Obama.
There are also some interesting facts about the battleground states in this election:
- Ohio is the most steadfast state, having collectively changed their minds only twice in the last six months. John McCain currently leads by 2.3% and has held that lead since August 17th, 2008.
- Pennsylvania has supported Barack Obama since April 14th – incidentally the same date that John McCain last surpassed Barack Obama in the national polls prior to September 7th.
- Michigan has supported Barack Obama since June 24th.
- Wisconsin has supported Barack Obama since the day they began polling in April of 2008.
- New Hampshire has supported Barack Obama since June 20th.
- Virgina has supported John McCain since August 12th, 2008, though the candidates were tied on September 16th, 2008.
- Florida has consistently supported John McCain since March of 2008, except for an entire seven day period in July in which the candidates were tied.
- Colorado has supported Barack Obama since June 26th, 2008, except for the entire week prior to the Democratic National Convention.
- New Mexico’s polls only go back to August 24th, 2008, and for the first two days, Obama surpassed McCain by one point. Since that time, Barack Obama has led by two or more points.
- Nevada generally supports John McCain, but holds the record among all battleground states for the longest and most frequent periods of ties. The two candidates were tied from June 20th – July 16th, 2008, and then again for a full week starting August 13th.
In summary, Barack Obama will win.
That is all.