Many of my friends still worry that Obama’s decline in the polls spells doom – as though the McCain bump is permanent. For them, I have four quantifiable reasons why Barack Obama will win the election:
1. According to a summary of all major polls in all states, Barack Obama would win the presidency if the election were held today. In fact, he’d win by 8 electoral votes. This was true last week, and the week before. Even at his highest polling point, McCain still lost the electoral vote by 8 votes. Go here for the evidence. So, there might be more Kansans who like McCain than a week ago, but this doesn’t make Kansas any redder on the electoral map. Within the last three weeks, no state has turned from blue to red. Obama is holding across the board.
2. New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Colorado each have Obama winning by at least 2 points. If these battleground states are trending blue at a time when the nation is trending red, that’s pretty strong support – a difference of at least 4 points per state in favor of Obama. Go here for the evidence.
3. Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa all share something very unique. All three states are leaning toward Obama, despite their pro-Bush history. No state is leaning toward McCain despite its pro-Kerry history. Collectively, they are worth 21 electoral votes. Go here for the evidence. Note that there are 15 states not represented in this grid (AK, DE, HI, ID, MD, NE, ND, OK, RI, SC, SD, UT, VE, WY, WV) – all of which are trending toward their respective 2004 candidate.
4. “Wrong Track” polls are at 80%, and the media is starting to turn sharply against McCain and Palin for their negative campaign. Even Karl Rove says they went too far. If 80% of the people think this country is on the wrong track, they’ll start quickly changing their mind when they realize that McCain is acting dishonerably – cancelling out his strength in this election.