The Numbers Tell a Different Story

Currently, McCain is up by 2.9% in the aggregate national polls, according to Real Clear Politics. Here is how the battleground states are playing out: if the election were held today, McCain would capture 91 of the toss-up votes, while Obama would only get 56. Add 91 to McCain’s existing 174 solid/leaning votes to get a total of 265. Add 56 to Obama’s 217 solid/leaning votes to get at a total of 273.

McCain – 265

Obama – 273

If the election were held today, Obama wins the election, but not the popular vote.

Here is how the 147 toss-up votes play out this week (but remember that these numbers are not locked – these states are those whose numbers tend to have a lot of swing):

Ohio (20) – McCain up by 1.3%

Pennsylvania (21)- Obama up by 4.7%

Michigan (17) – Obama up by 3.3%

North Carolina (15) – McCain up by 4.2%

New Hampshire (4) – Obama up by 0.3%

Virginia (13) – McCain up by 0.7%

Florida (27) – McCain up by 2.6%

Missouri (11) – McCain up by 7.0%

Colorado (9) – Obama up by 1.0%

New Mexico (5) – Obama up by 4.3%

Nevada (5) – McCain up by 1.0%

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